What seems to me to be the key event of 2014 is the unraveling of the oil myth. The rise of the US as a major oil producer has created a glut. Plus, while low oil has put on hold many initiatives both in shale and in alternative energies, their companies and technologies will bristle at the bit waiting for an increase in high oil prices. Any rise in oil prices hence will be met with renewed investments in alternative, natural gas and shale. Plus, China has the largest shale reserves on the planet and while some of the developments there are now put on hold, total output is only set to grow.
It’s far too early to say that the era of oil is ending, but its stifling grip on world affairs and the politica power of its producers looks set to lessen.