That risks are modest and manageable simply is not true, these risks are unknowable. Capital economics can not predict the future. What they’re doing is providing legitimacy to xenophobic europhobes. Wilders is a populist pur sang, he’d claim anything if it would get him elected.
People want to believe that an exit from the Euro is manageable, of course they do. Exposure to debt crises in Southern Europe continues to hamper our recovery and many pretend we were not to fault. But our banks were deeply involved and would have been exposed to the crisis anyway and the crunch could have been much more severe had we not been part of the Euro. And just how will European countries react if the Dutch were to leave and pretend its not their problem? Exports are almost 30% of Dutch GDP and more than 75% of that 30% is export to other EU countries. The sane and manageable idea here is to reintroduce currency risk into that huge trade volume?
Wilders is going to be incredibly tough to defeat. All his opponents need to toe the line, claim the Euro is ok and that abandoning the guilder was no mistake. Claim further bailouts of Greece are necessary. Explain the complexities that make abandoning the Euro so risky. The EU campaign will be fireworks.