Whither China?

Very relevant here:

China faces a “demographic timebomb” as they say with more than a third of all Chinese projected to be over the age of 60 in 2050 with a median age of almost 50. The following Economist article is very telling:


I agree that the Chinese authorities have proven to be eminently capable but they will also have to manage expectations, these are in no way commensurate with China’s potential given the demographic constraints.

The risk is that people will stop spending and start saving for their own retirement once they witness the decline in purchasing power and associated grief of their parents. Also they’ll be called upon to support their parents which will change spending patterns. This already seems to be happening.