Without intervention in Syria, Assad will win.


“Britain, France and the US now have to do a lot of thinking about what will happen if the Geneva process collapses. ”

Without intervention, the Assad regime will win, its allies have shown their willingness to see to that. Iran extended a line of credit worth over $4b to Syria, assets that it will have trouble scraping together and that will hurt its economy and credibility further. Russia is willing to cross traditional yellow if not red lines, delivering S400 and P800 Yakhont to Syria shows a determination to extend their domain that the Russians haven’t shown since Khrushchev. Hezbollah has entirely forfeited its resistance image in crossing into Syria and engaging in both sectarian and terrorist (anti-civilian) warfare.

Britain, France, Turkey, Israel and the US lack the will to get involved militarily. A few thousand AK47s handed over to rebels, terrorists and desperate men aren’t going to cut it against the determined international forces now uniting to hold Syria.

Maybe when the Geneva process collapses will the west wake up to the new reality and impose a no-fly zone like the US did over northern Iraq over northern Syria, allowing the local Sunnis and Kurds to hold their own and create a semblance of order.  A front must be stabilized that can form the basis for a geographical ordering akin to that in Iraq. It won’t be stable but can form the basis for a couple of geographical splits and mergers based on actual rather than imperialist borders in the Middle East, a process that seems long overdue.