Assad is winning.

It appears Bashar’s forces are engaging in a relatively successful campaign in the south. The chemical weapons red line is more yellow than red. And the program of ethnic cleansing in the coastal areas isn’t meeting the sort of opposition the regime would be daunted by either. Meanwhile Hezbollah, Iraq and Iran are increasingly taking up arms for Assad and the Russians are flying in supplies so that his depleted armies are being reinforced, this time by foreigners rather than Syrians.

Things are finally looking up for the Assads. The US under Obama obviously isn’t going to interfere. Maybe the Assads don’t need to retreat to a coastal enclave at all but can now launch a few successful campaigns, perhaps taking Homs, Hama, maybe even Aleppo. The peace conference can be stalled while the Assads work their way towards establishing superiority. The goal is to subjugate the Sunnis and all of Syria and make abundantly clear to the Sunnis that nobody is going to rescue them no matter what Assad and his allies throw at them.

See I don’t get it when people consider Obama’s policies here to be proper and good. Syria is about how the Russians and Iranians are battling to hold their ground in the Middle East which is by whatever means necessary. After Iraq how can the US simply stand by? One may hope agaisnt hope that Erdogan can talk some sense into Obama but really how obvious is that; Erdogan must hope Obama wants to remember NATO.

This peace conference is a typical Lavrov trap, the US walked right into it and now has to appear to convince its “allies” in Syria (of which it has none whatsoever) to talk to the Assads while Russia, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and Iraq make progress on the ground.

I think we’re witnessing a turning point.