China’s direction

China is buying more than enough US debt for it to be financing the US navy’s guarantee of global freedom of navigation. For China it is an abrasive security relationship, but they have no alternative. An early signal to see if China will assume its responsibility would be for the hacking divisions in the PLA to become less obnoxious. China premier denied the allegations, which may mean that it now is an issue at senior levels: maintaining deniability now is the only constructive avenue.

China is obsessed with denying the US fleet access, a strategy that is ultimately self defeating. Even a token US fleet defeat would create a void in the western pacific (and towards oil) that China cannot by itself occupy, US space based assets if not China’s immediate neighbours will see to that.

I wonder Gideon when China will throw in the towel and assume the mantel of responsible global player. Going to Russia is the opposite direction. There’s no gain in seeking confrontation with the US. Other than for the old guard who never signed up to Deng’s ideas. Are they really so powerful? Obviously they can mobilize many in nationalist frenzies against the Japanese easily enough, a raw power that the more subtle reform and growth minded do not have. But there’s nothing to gain other than vainglory there. What hand is strongest? Witnessing the outcry against the Cypriot bailout once again I am reminded of the crushing power that populists chose to leverage. But China doesn’t have the upper hand, and won’t for decades, if ever.